Saturday, September 23, 2017

             CLIMATE WARS:  THE  FARCE  AWAKENS


 Every  God Emperor  Needs  A God-Fearing  Science Advisor
The runner-up was Jar Jar Binks  

PRESIDENT  TRUMP'S   HUNTSVILLE  SERMON HAS  INSPIRED A REPORT FROM
  UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA  CLIMATOLOGIST  &  HEARTLAND INSTITUTE 

 OF  THE YEAR  DR. ROY SPENCER   :

Cracks in the Empire’s Armor Appear

September 20th, 2017 
Yesterday brought widespread news coverage of a new “study” published in Nature Geoscience which concludes that global warming has not been progressing as fast as expected, and that climate models might be a “little bit” wrong.

My initial reaction to the news was captured by my wife:
I’ve been thinking about what led to this turn of events. I’ve decided it was not some random realization by rogue elements of the Empire. It was not a tactical anomaly, but instead a strategic trial balloon of sorts.

Had John Christy or I tried to publish such a paper, Storm Troopers led by Darth Trenberth would have been quickly dispatched to put down the rebellion.

I suspect there have been years of discussions in e-cigarette vapor-filled back rooms where Empire leaders have been discussing how the increasing disparity between models and observations should be handled. The resulting new paper is part of a grand scheme that Population Bomb author Paul Ehrlich perfected decades ago.

                              HAVING  LEFT MIT FOR  THE CATO INSTITUTE,  DICK LINDZEN MIGHT SPIN IT DIFFERENTLY:

Thursday, September 21, 2017

     TWO  NEW  SCIENCES: SURREALIST  HYDRODYNAMICS
                            & SOLID  STATE  METEOROLOGY

           

     AT  WUWT    --


Gravity waves influence weather and climate

  1. AGW theory proposes that a new equilibrium is set at a higher surface temperature when GHGs increase but a new equilibrium cannot be set because any such proposed new equilibrium would permanently upset the balance between the upward pressure gradient force and the downward force of gravity. 
    Either the atmosphere would expand indefinitely (if the net effect of GHGs is warming) and be lost to space or it would contract indefinitely (if the net effect of GHGs is cooling) and fall to the ground as a congealed solid.
    The net effect on hydrostatic balance at any given level of insolation by the radiative effects of GHGs must be zero...

  2. Extend the logic to realise that they mediate the climate response to everything that would otherwise serve to disrupt hydrostatic equilibrium.

    So, one can concede that human emissions might affect global air circulation patterns INSTEAD OF changing surface temperatures but due to the vastly greater effects of solar and oceanic variability we could never notice or measure it.

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

CO2? NAH, IT'S THE FIRST  LAW  OF  SNYDERGAARDYNAMICS

Mets Pitcher Noah Syndergaard has leapt into the global warming debate, by saying that the recent hurricanes are a sort of revenge, exacted by global warming due to President Trump’s decision to leave the Paris Climate Accord.

Syndergaard jumped to Twitter to insinuate that the hurricanes slamming the U.S. is “karma.”
“U.S. pulls out of Paris Climate Accord. Then hit by 4 Hurricanes in 6 weeks. Global Warming Karma?” Syndergaard tweeted on Monday:
Syndergaard added a hashtag identifying himself as a Texan, and a Republican...
Despite the baseball player’s assumption that global warming caused the last few hurricanes, not many climatologists concur with that claim.
Indeed, as Breitbart’s James Delingpole noted, the claim often made by climate change activists that hurricanes will increase in scope and intensity is nothing but “alarmism,” not supported by facts.
Follow Warner Todd Huston on Twitter @warnerthuston.


Monday, September 18, 2017

  SOME  PSEUDS FORGO  THEIR PSEUDONYMS  ONLY  WHEN
                     SPEAKING  PSEUDOTRUTH  TO  POWER

The CPAC Climate Demolition & Disinformation Derby, with NRO's John Fund, [ FULL DISCLOSURE- Fund is the WSJ editor who in 1989 condensed a 5,500 policy journal article of mine into a half page op-ed], Breitbart London's non-science guy, James Delingpole, perennial K-Street hack lawyer and Junk Science Judo author Steve Milloy and climate blogger turned carbon lobbyist Tony Heller, better known by the pseudonym 'Steven Goddard.' Atticus he ain't.

                                       PLACE  YOUR  BETS !

WINTON CAPITAL SETS UP 

CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTION MARKET

  • Date: 12/09/17
  • Lindsay Fortado, Financial Times

WIDOWS & ORPHANS BEWARE !

One of Europe’s largest hedge funds is looking to move into the gambling industry in the UK, as it sets up a new venue where players can bet on the effects of climate change. The project is hoping to tempt climate scientists to put their money where their models are.

The new “climate prediction market” is the brainchild of Winton Capital, founded by David Harding, and is aimed at finding a market consensus on the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and global temperature rises in the future.
The not-for-profit project, which is being funded out of Winton’s philanthropic budget, is hoping to tempt climate scientists to put their money where their models are, and to provide a clear benchmark of the academic consensus at a time of intense interest in man-made climate change.
News of the project comes as the UN General Assembly meeting in New York focuses on the theme of a sustainable planet. Climate change also continues to dominate the political agenda around the world, after President Donald Trump declared he will withdraw the US from the Paris climate accord and roll back regulations on the production of coal.
“With a prediction market, getting the information is the primary objective,” said Mark Roulston, a scientist at Winton who is overseeing the project. “There’s not necessarily a consensus on all the implications of climate change. The idea is to have a benchmark which could track any emerging consensus.”
Under the plan, scientists and experts from around the world will be able to trade contracts based on the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and how far temperatures increase, going decades into the future.

Winton  will act as  a market maker  and  subsidise trading, rather than taking a cut  ... The hedge fund will initially  target  professionals in the climate field  to  participate, 

though it will be open to anyone in the UK. It is being run internally at Winton, with employees able to place notional bets rather than using real money. Mr Roulston said they are hoping to launch it externally later this year to universities, and will open it to the public sometime next year.

Sunday, September 17, 2017

 FROM JUNK SCIENCE JUDO TO  JUNK SCIENCE SUMO

President Donald Trump plans to nominate his longtime campaign aide Sam Clovis (aka Jabba the Hut) to head science at the US Department of Agriculture, despite the fact that Clovis lacks a background in science and a congressional rule maintains that the role must be filled “from among distinguished scientists.”

 As an example of  Chief Scientist Clovis' mastery  of the scientific method  here is his defense of Trump supporters fighting with protesters to CNN’s Alisyn Camerota
Camerota: What do you think about the idea that he was suggesting that there would be violence? Threatening that there would be violence?
Clovis: I don’t think he said violence, he said riots…
Camerota: Riots are violence, by definition.
Clovis: I don’t accept that.
.

Saturday, September 16, 2017

                      FOR  BETTER   JUNK  SCIENCE  ADVISORS
                                      TRY  THE  CHINESE  NAVY

CITIZENS  HAVE JUST 12 DAYS LEFT TO COMMENT  ON EPA ADIMINSTRATOR PRUITT'S PECULIAR  TASTE  IN SCIENCE ADVISORS, REPORTS  CLIMATEWIRE 

Climate skeptics may soon join a 
key science advisory panel at U.S. EPA.
At least one nominee hopes to use a position on the board to challenge the science undergirding many environmental regulations. One has said in a statement that the world must "abandon this suicidal Global Warming crusade." Another compared people concerned about climate change to "Aztecs who believed they could make rain by cutting out beating hearts."
THE CLIMATE HUSTLE CREW, 
COMING  SOON TO A  SWAMP  NEAR  YOU

EPA has submitted 132 names for public comment as possible members of the panel. About a dozen of them have made comments rejecting mainstream climate science...The selection of any of those researchers would be the beginning of a very different advisory board that would bear the hallmark of the Trump administration's position on climate change, said Steve Milloy, [ author of Junk  Science Judo ]  ...who worked on President Trump's transition team for the agency. 
"Had some other Republican won the presidency and a swamp creature taken over the EPA, this would not be happening," he said, "but thank God for Scott Pruitt that he's got the courage to do this."The Heartland Institute—a Chicago-based free-market think tank that pushes alternative climate science—nominated many of the current prospects... Here are some of the skeptical nominees under consideration: 
Edwin Berry, a meteorologist and atmospheric scientist: He has funded his own climate research and says human carbon dioxide emissions do not cause climate change. He has compared those who believe in human-caused climate change to "Aztecs who believed they could make rain by cutting out beating hearts and rolling decapitated heads down temple steps." On his Twitter account, he has called Islam "a death cult" and has encouraged motorists to drive into protesters..."Let's get over this whole thing about climate change being an important thing, because in fact we humans have a negligible impact on climate," he said. "And if we had the Paris Agreement and everything else, it wouldn't do any good anyway." 
Craig Idso, a senior fellow at the Heartland Institute: . His work has centered on highlighting how increased carbon dioxide will benefit plants.
[ The plants most likely to benefit are coal burning ones  like Four Corners, -  the Western Coal Association has been paying  Idso, pere et fils  bills for the past 40 years ]
Paul Driessen, a senior policy adviser at the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, a libertarian environmental think tank...holds that spiking levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide benefit the Earth. "The world must abandon this suicidal Global Warming crusade," the group stated in its founding statement. "Man does not and cannot control the climate." 
Gordon Fulks, a physicist and adviser to the Cascade Policy Institute... He has said those who express concern about climate change are like a "societal pathogen that virulently spreads misinformation in tiny packages like a virus." 
Milloy accused the panels of being " cronies of EPA, they fall in line, they do what EPA wants," he said. "It's extraordinarily rare that they dare to question the EPA and, if they do, then the EPA just ignores them. If they're not rubber stamps, then they're useless."
Heartland Institute Science Director Jay Lehr PhD somehow failed to make the cut. Could Administrator Pruitt  be chary of  glad-handing  an ex-con who did Federal prison time for defrauding the EPA of over $100,000 ?

"WE HAVE VIRTUALLY NO DATA", SO LET'S WRITE FOR WATTS

Climate Models Can’t Even Approximate Reality Because Atmospheric Structure and Movements are Virtually Unknown


Guest Opinion: Dr. Tim Ball
... Models vary from hardware models or simple scaled down versions of reality to complete abstractions. A model car is an example of the former and a mathematical formula with symbols replacing variables of the latter. The problem with the hardware is it is impossible to scale down many things because the physical properties change. For example, it is impossible to scale down the change of ice from solid and rigid to plastic and flowing as occurs in an alpine glacier in a hardware model. In the abstract model, each variable loses most of its real-world properties.

Climate models are abstract models, except they are made up of a multiple of models all interacting with each other. Those interactions bear little resemblance to reality.
In summary,
I KNOW NOTHING !
  • We have virtually no data.
  • This is true even for fundamental variables like temperature, precipitation atmospheric pressure, and atmospheric water content.
  • Data is replaced by symbols that eliminate most of the properties of the natural variable.
  • In many cases the “data” is generated in another model and used as ‘real’ data in the larger model.
  • The models are essentially static representations of average conditions. The one thing we know with certainty is that the Earth’s atmospheric system is dynamic, changing daily, seasonally and constantly over the course of time.
  • The models consistently fail the standard test of scientific understanding and accuracy by producing inaccurate predictions.
Initially, I learned the basics of weather and especially forecasting necessary for aviation. These were expanded when I gave lectures on aviation weather as an operations officer on an anti-submarine squadron flying over the North Atlantic and then for a search and rescue squadron flying in northern and Arctic Canada. I recall one search out of Fort Chipewyan, northern Alberta when we observed first-hand the severe limitations of knowledge and therefore forecast skills.

             THE  BREITBART BIPARTISAN  HURRICANE NEWS


On Friday’s broadcast of HBO’s “Real Time,” host Bill Maher stated the fact that none of President Trump’s properties in the path of Hurricane Irma were damaged by the storm shows that God doesn’t exist.
Maher said, “But here’s the most amazing thing of all, amid all the destruction in the path of that hurricane, neither Mar-a-Lago, nor Trump’s estate in St. Martin’s, nor any of his golf courses in the path got damaged at all. They all escaped almost completely unscathed, which just goes to show something I have always believed, there is no God.”
Avatar
 

Trump has multiple properties in the region affected by the hurricane. NONE of them are damaged. REMARKABLE.
Maher says there is no god. Random chance spared all those properties. At random. Really big storm. Random.
I think it's far more likely God's having a great laugh at the expense of arrogant naysayers by smiling on Donald Trump
    • Avatar
       

      Amen ...God Bless Donald Trump and America

    • Avatar
       

      Absolutely divine protection. Every luke warm christian should rejoice that God, the one true living God, protected and blessed his servant Trump. 

      He has given us a sign so we know Trump is allied with good. 
      Hrc was evil. 

      Loved witchcraft, spirit cooking, all sexual deviants, isis, lies, murder, greed, etc. the forces of evil are surrounding Trump but there is a battle. 

      Hrc would have leveraged and concentrated those evil forces to destroy America Praise God


      by DANIEL J. FLYNN15 Sep 2017
      Hillary Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta likened the Trump White House to a “clown car” in that “you are never sure who is getting out of the door” Thursday night on All in with Chris Hayes, an MSNBC program hosted by a zealous Democrat who just as zealously embraces the look of a Hale-Bopp Heaven’s Gate cultist.

      To strange people, people appear strange.
      Take Podesta, a UFO aficionado whose truth is out there. He kept a picture of two fork-wielding men cannibalizing another man at a table, entitled “We’re Bringing an Old Friend over for Dinner,” at his office at Hillary Clinton’s Brooklyn campaign headquarters. During that campaign, news hit of Podesta’s invitation to a “spirit cooking” dinner by a performance artist, herself invited by Podesta to Hillary Clinton’s campaign kickoff, who dabbles in the occult. Though a past book and performances under the “spirit cooking” title involved such jaw-droppers as breast-milk-mixed-with-sperm potions and pigs-blood graffiti, Marina Abramovic insists the event she invited the Brothers Podesta to under that name involved no sorcery, spells, or strangeness...
      One of Hillary Clinton’s biggest cheerleaders in the sisterhood (members of the sisterhood hate real cheerleaders), Sally Quinn, outed herself as a practitioner of witchcraft in a memoir released this month. Ben Bradlee’s widow and one of Washington’s most famous hostesses insists she put hexes in candlelight rituals on three people who subsequently died. After a psychic provided a bad reading regarding her son, Quinn unleashed her evil wizardry on the unfortunate woman, who soon died, causing the Washington Post writer to swear off hexes for good.


    Thursday, September 14, 2017

          WATTS  BRISTLECONE BULLION: WHERE'S  THE  BEEF?

    Bristlecone pines rank among the slowest growing organisms on Earth-  their girth increases by roughly a meter per millennium, and some have sat atop  the California tree line since before the invention of writing.  As the world's oldest trees, they naturally contain the world's oldest living climate record, reflected in the rings of their growth, and play an important role in efforts to understand palaeoclimate.

    But they record a lot more than changes in the weather over time- each  set of rings is a palimsest overwritten by changes in ecology that change micronutrient availability, a capsule history of all the natural fertilizers left behind by generations of animals, dead and alive. In the last half century isotopic systemics and mass specroscopy  have done much to improve and deconvolute the proxy climate record tree rings provide, much as  they have figured in advances in atmosphic chemistry and transport.  Most observers embrace this as normative scientific progress, but some deny the most advanced  instrumental results in favor of 19th century  natural history- guess who?

    Study reveals that Mann’s Bristlecone pine trees may not be good “treemometers” after all



    Dr. Michael Mann used tree ring core samples from Bristlecone pines in the Western United states as one of the most heavily weighted proxies used to make his infamous “hockey stick” Now it seems that even though temperature in these areas has been rising, the Bristlecones aren’t responding to it by increasing their range, and other tree species are jumping ahead in the same area.
    I pointed out some years ago that Mann didn’t seem to be aware of Liebigs Law of the Minimum which regulates plant growth."

    Mike Mann is indeed aware of it- the problem is Watts  incomprehension  of  its  biogeographic meaning- or lack thereof : he  glosses over  the obvious fact that anthopogenic climate change has already contributed to species displacement in  the former Chico TV weatherman's own Californian back yard: Changes that have nothing to do with limiting trace elements or Liebig, who, born in 1803, is better remembered for inventing bullion cubes:



    Watts links to 
     Global Change Biology, article that far from criticizing the "hockey stick," or discussing Liebig's Principle, 

    "shows that the tree line has been steadily moving upslope over the past 50 years in the Great Basin. The region extends from California’s Sierra Nevada, across Nevada to Utah’s Uinta Mountains. Its north and south are framed by the Columbia and Colorado rivers’ watersheds.
    The study also found that limber pine is successfully ? “leapfrogging” over bristlecone pine. They are growing in soils once almost completely dominated by bristlecone pine, and they are moving upslope at a faster rate than the bristlecone pine...
    Earth’s oldest trees in climate-induced race up the tree line
    Bristlecone pine trees in great basin are losing game of leapfrog with limber pine

    LEGACY EFFECTS
    Smithers said he doesn’t expect bristlecone pine adult trees to be impacted much by current climatic shifts, as those trees are well-established. But how, if and where new bristlecone pine trees will regenerate is less certain, particularly as other species like limber pine take up valuable space for them to germinate.
    “The things we’re doing today have legacy effects for thousands of years in the Great Basin,” Smithers said. “When those trees do start to die, they won’t likely be replaced because it’s just too hot and dry.”
    The study suggests that land managers identify the specific bottlenecks for a species to live long enough to reproduce, and focus on that stage. For long-lived trees like bristlecone and limber pines, the bottleneck is at the time of their initial establishment, not hundreds and thousands of years into their adulthoods."